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生猪市场透视

发布时间:2019-10-13 05:30:26 编辑:笔名

  生猪市场透视

  Everyday we are asked if the US-Canada hog market has room for a run higher this year. We always answer yes. We understand the near anguish of the questioner. The losses of the hog industry have been real. It hasn t gotten better. Last week Sterling Marketing of Colorado estimated farrow to finish losses per head to be currently $25.00. Cowboy math 2.7 million market hogs, USA-Canada a week equals $100 million plus in the red a week, it has been, Ugly, Ugly, Ugly.

  我们每天都被问, 美国和加拿大的生猪价格今年是否还有上涨的空间? 我们总是回答 是 。我们理解提问者的苦恼。养猪业的亏损是真实存在的。这并没有得到改善。上周科罗拉多的Sterling营销公司估计,目前自繁自养的猪场每头亏损25.00美元。简单算一下,270万生猪,美国和加拿大一周会损失$1亿美元以上,这不是好消息。

  Some Observations

  一些观察

  A year ago this week the US National Base Lean % was 81.46 a lb. This year 80.22 a lb. Not much difference. Last year we did reach $1.00 a lb. within 10 weeks from now. Markets move can be volatile and mostly unexpected (note: Corn dropped about $1.00 a bushel in a couple days recently).

  去年同一周的美国全国%基准瘦肉的价格为81.46美分/磅,今年80.22美分/磅的价格没有太大的区别。在去年现在的十周内,我们达到每磅1.00美元的价格。市场走势可能会有波动,而且很难预测。(注:最近几天玉米跌了每蒲式耳1.00美元左右。)

  Some are predicting (Hello Missouri Ag-Economists) that US Hog Production will increase about 1% this year over last. Actual US hog marketing year to date have been -0.7% lower. We believe that there was sow liquidation not expansion in the last 10 months. US hog marketing in our opinion will remain below year ago levels for the balance of 2013. This will support hog prices.

  一些人预测(向密苏里的农业经济学家问好),今年的美国生猪生产将会增长约1%。实际上,今年至今的美国生猪上市量已经下降0.7%。我们相信在过去10个月内,母猪群已经削减且没有扩张。在我们看来,2013年的美国生猪上市量仍将低于去年同期水平。这将会支撑生猪价格。

  Hog supply in Canada year to date (First Quarter) Hog Slaughter in Canada is -1.7% lower year over year (about 100,000 head). Feeder Pig and Early Wean shipments Canada to USA are down 9% (-100,000). Sum it up, Canada hog marketings and small pigs to USA down about 200,000 first three months of 2013. Keep it up it will be close to a million head. Less is not more. Canada s production decreasing due to the ugly lack of profitability. We are in a Continental hog market fewer pigs in Canada supports Canada-USA prices. We are aware of continued sow liquidation in Canada which will magnify the pig supply decrease.

  加拿大的生猪供应 今年至今(第一季度)加拿大的生猪屠宰量比去年同期下降1.7%(约100,000头)。加拿大出口到美国的生长猪及早期断奶猪数量下降了9%(-100,000)。 2013年前3个月,加拿大出口到美国的生猪和小猪减少约200,000头。继续保持下去将会接近一万头。 少即是多 并非总是对的。由于盈利能力的严重缺乏,加拿大的生产出现停滞。我们处在同一个大陆生猪市场,加拿大的生猪减少会支持加拿大-美国的价格。我们都知道在加拿大出现了持续的母猪减栏,这将加剧生猪供应的减少。

  US Sow slaughter is the first three months of 2013 is 1% higher than a year ago. More sows marketed does not scream EXPANSION to us.

  2013年的前3个月美国母猪屠宰量比去年同期高出1%。母猪的淘汰并不会给我们扩张的信号。

  Dr. Steve Meyers last week wrote that US Wholesale pork Prices are at very low levels historically relative to Choice Grade Beef and Chicken. This in our opinion will be an incentive for retailers to feature pork which will then stimulate demand and enhance hog prices. We all know the seasonal supply of pork will drop significantly over the next few weeks.

  史蒂夫 迈尔斯博士上周写道,与高档牛肉和鸡肉相比,美国的猪肉批发价格正处于历史低位。在我们看来,这将刺激零售商推出精品猪肉,并刺激猪肉的需求,提高生猪价格。我们都知道猪肉的季节性供应将在未来几周大幅下降。

  What is seasonable supply difference? In 2012 second quarter April-June the US marketed 26.659 million head or 2.051 million a week. The last quarter of 2012 (Oct-Dec) the US marketed 30.426 million head or 2.34 million head per week. That is a seasonal difference of about 300,000 (almost 15%) head per week. Big supply change big price difference. This year April June we expect a minimum 3000,000 head difference per week compare to fourth quarter 2012.

  季节性供应的差别有多大?2012年第2季度(月),美国销售量为2665.9万头,即每周205.1万头。2012年第4季度(月),美国的销售量为3042.6万头,即每周234万头。每周的差距达到约30万头(近15%),这就是季节性差异。供应变化越大,价格差异越大。我们预计今年月与2012年第4季度相比至少每周相差300万头。

  Corn Crop Planting is being delayed due to cold and rain. So much for droughts as areas of the Mississippi River could flood. We find it interesting that despite what was a disastrous drought last year and Corn-Soybean crops significantly down. Recent Cash Corn bushel Omaha this year $6.81 last year. $6.47. Cash Soybean bushel Southern Iowa $14.61 last year $14.46. A year ago at this time a record crop was dreamed of, we had a disastrous crop year instead, but prices year over year almost the same. Question what would a big crop do to corn and soybean prices? Obviously corn-soybean demand has been damaged, how low will prices have to go to stimulate demand? Last week Rondonopolis, Brazil Corn a bushel $2.86 US soybean bushel $10.44 USD (other Brazil prices higher) Supply Demand = Price

  由于寒冷和雨季,玉米谷物的种植被延迟。在密西西比河地区可能发大水的情况下,仍然有这么多地区干旱。我们觉得有趣的是,尽管去年出现灾难性的干旱,玉米和大豆作物的收成还是出现显着下降。最近奥马哈的玉米现货价格为$6.81/蒲式耳,而去年的价格是$6.47。艾奥瓦州南部的大豆现货价格为14.61美元每蒲式耳,去年的价格是14.46美元。去年的这时,我们梦想着能有破纪录的收成,结果却是糟糕的一年,但是同比的价格却几乎一样。问题是大丰收会带来怎样的玉米和大豆价格?显然,玉米 - 豆粕的需求已经受到伤害,要用多低的价格才能刺激需求?上周,巴西龙多诺波利斯的玉米价格为$2.86美元/蒲式耳,美国大豆价格为$10.44美元/蒲式耳(其它的巴西价格更高)。供应 需要 = 价格

  We have written a few times that the fortunes of the hog industry profitability is greatly tied to our feed costs. Indeed the hog price we are getting now is quite good relative to past years.

  我们已经说过几次,养猪业的盈利能力与我们的饲料成本息息相关。事实上,我们现在得到的生猪价格与过去几年有很大的相关。

  Pork buyers whether Retailers, Food service or export have paid significantly more for pork the last two years. Our Farmer Arithmetic tells us its $40/head more than the average of the previous nine years. The positive is the hog price and pork price went up and all the pork we produced was consumed at a significantly higher price which does reflect real positive pork demand. The price of pork in the short term has nothing to do with where feed costs are. As an industry we should be thankful and positive that hog and pork price have shown real price power. This has not turned into profit but if feed prices decline the hog price is at a level that will result in real profits. Consumers vote with their money and they have proven the last two years they will pay more for Pork.

  包括零售商、食品服务或出口商在内的猪肉买家在过去两年都为猪肉付出了更高的价格。我们用农民的算术就知道每头比过去9年的平均水平贵了 40美元。值得肯定的是,生猪价格和猪肉价格上升,我们生产的所有猪肉都以明显更高的价格被消费,这反映真正积极的猪肉需求。与饲料成本一样,猪肉价格在短期内很难变化。作为一个行业,生猪及猪肉价格已经显示出真正价格能量,我们应该感恩并保持积极的心态。这并不能直接转为利润,但如果在同样生猪价格的条件下出现饲料价格下跌,这就会带来真正的利润。消费者会用自己的钱投票。事实证明,他们在过去的两年已经为猪肉支付了更多的钱。

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